Back

npj Aging

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match npj Aging's content profile, based on 22 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
A Scalable Biological Clock for Metabolic Disease Prediction from the Phenome India Cohort

Tiwari, P.; Garg, M.; Pattanayak, S.; Sarkar, I.; Roy, R.; Bhatraju, N.; Verma, A.; K, S. R.; Prakash, S.; Kumar, V. S.; Uddin, M. A.; Rawat, N.; Sahu, A.; Kumar, Y.; Leuva, P. H.; Mridha, A.; Yenamandra, V.; Singh, A. P.; Mishra, A.; Raychaudhuri, S.; Tallapaka, K. B.; Chandak, G. R.; Kulkarni, M. J.; Dharne, M.; Wahengbam, R.; Kalita, J.; Manna, P.; Subudhi, U.; Majumder, S.; Chakraborty, P.; Chaudhary, K.; Sengupta, S.; Phenome India Consortium, ; Sardana, V.; Chatterjee, S.; Ganguly, D.

2026-09-03 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361656 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
7.6%
Show abstract

Background: India has a rising incidence of chronic non-communicable diseases, making it a major healthcare burden today. Growing evidence suggests that chronic low-grade inflammation links ageing with cardiometabolic disorders, captured by the emerging concept of inflammaging. However, most evidence on biological ageing comes from Western populations, with no similar models developed for the Indian population. Given the country's distinctive genetic makeup, unique exposome, and heterogeneous NCD presentation, Western models may not capture inflammaging and its effects in the Indian population. Methods: We analysed baseline data from 4,240 adults in the Phenome India CSIR Health Cohort Knowledgebase (PI CheCK), a nationwide multi-centre cohort. Participants were stratified into eight cardiometabolic phenotype groups by BMI (Asian cut off), blood pressure and HbA1c status. We trained a Super Learner ensemble to predict chronological age in the lean normotensive-normoglycaemic reference group (n=615) using 44 plasma cytokines, sex, haemoglobin, and bioimpedance-derived visceral fat area, per cent body fat, and total body water. Performance was assessed by repeated five-fold cross-validation and in a held-out healthy test set. Calibrated biological age acceleration was then estimated in the remaining 3,625 participants. Results: Median age was 51.0 years (IQR 41.0 to 62.0) and 49.4% were female. The Super Learner outperformed elastic net and XGBoost comparators. Permutation importance identified visceral fat area, per cent body fat, CTACK, SDF1a, haemoglobin and sex as leading contributors, with body composition measures accounting for the largest share, indicating an immune-metabolic rather than cytokine-only signal. Biological age acceleration was concentrated in overweight/obese phenotypes. Lean phenotypes showed acceleration close to the reference (0.32 0.50 years). Conclusions: Cytokine and body composition measures capture a quantifiable immunometabolic ageing signal in a South Asian cohort, with acceleration driven predominantly by adiposity. External validation and longitudinal follow up are required.

2
External Validation of a Mathematical Model of Brain Health

Sadia, H.; Doyon, N.; Duchesne, S.

2026-09-03 neurology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361929 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
6.4%
Show abstract

Background Understanding the mechanisms underlying brain aging and age-related pathological changes is essential for advancing brain health research. Our group previously developed a mechanistic mathematical model of healthy brain, Chamberland et al. (2024) that integrates key biological processes involved in normal aging, from which Alzheimer's disease (AD) related changes may emerge naturally. Objectives To characterize and validate this brain model by evaluating its sensitivity, calibrating its parameters, and assessing generalizability in independent populations. Methods The model represents the evolution of key biological processes associated with brain aging, including amyloid beta (A{beta}), tau pathologies, neuroinflammation, and neuronal death. After identifying the 30 most influential parameters, we calibrated the model using cognitively normal (CN) participants from the AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (n = 211) by minimizing a loss function composed of three outcomes (AB) plaques, tau tangles, and neuronal density). The calibrated model was then applied to the UK Biobank cohort (n = 35,899) of normal controls (aged 44-82 years). The effects of sex and APOE were evaluated using stratified simulations. Results Parameter calibration significantly reduced the prediction errors for A{beta} and tau. Neuronal density predictions showed strong agreement in the UK Biobank cohort. The variance decomposition identified APOE status as a major contributor to variability in A{beta}. Conclusion Our validated brain health model links mechanistic pathways with population data and reproduces neuronal density patterns in an independent cohort. These findings support its use as a framework for studying brain aging and investigating how Alzheimer's disease related pathological changes may emerge with aging.

3
A kidney-conditioned urinary peptidomic biological ageing clock predicts all-cause mortality and age-related health outcomes

Biglari, S.; Jaimes-Campos, M. A.; Siwy, J.; Latosinska, A.; Mischak, H.; Nawrot, T. S.; Staessen, J. A.; Martens, D. S.; Banasik, M.

2026-09-04 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361640 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.4%
Show abstract

Background Ageing clocks are promising non-invasive tools to assess biological ageing, but they generally cannot guide intervention. We aimed to develop a urinary peptidomic ageing clock, expected to react to intervention, and to test whether the resulting age acceleration predicts all-cause mortality and adverse health outcomes. Methods In this retrospective multi-cohort study, urinary peptides were measured by capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry (CE-MS). An unconditioned clock (UPBioAge) was developed in a kidney function-preserved derivation cohort (n = 1,811), then conditioned on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) by Filtrate-Aware Calibration (FAC) fitted in an independent kidney-diverse cohort (n = 7,798), resulting in k-UPBioAge. Age prediction accuracy was evaluated in three cohorts independent of model development. Kidney-conditioned age acceleration (k-UPBioAgeAcc) was related to all-cause mortality and incident disease in a clinically enriched follow-up cohort (n = 7,469; 625 deaths; median follow-up 3.95 years) using Cox models adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, body-mass index, mean arterial pressure and eGFR. Findings After standard age-bias correction, k-UPBioAge estimated chronological age with a calibrated holdout mean absolute error of 4.91 years (r = 0.945), and 5.43-5.47 years in two validation cohorts (one population cohort and the other samples analysed in an external site). Each SD increment in k-UPBioAgeAcc was associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.35-1.63), incident coronary artery disease (1.44, 1.27-1.63), heart failure (1.27, 1.14-1.42) and chronic kidney disease progression (1.35, 1.05-1.73). The association did not differ by sex (P for interaction = 0.33), and none of four comorbidity interactions survived correction for multiple testing (adjusted P = 0.65-0.72), but no association was evident in participants with an eGFR of 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 433, 84 deaths) or macroalbuminuria (n = 92, 34 deaths). Interpretation Multiple urinary peptides are significantly associated with ageing, enabling the establishment of a robust biological ageing clock. As urine is generated in the kidney, a urinary ageing clock is affected by kidney function, mandating correction. The corrected urinary peptide-based biological ageing clock is affected by disease, and may warrant evaluation for monitoring or guiding personalised interventions.

4
Causal roles of phenotypic age and metabolic health on dementia: a Mendelian randomisation and structure learning study

Baousi, A.; Dobinda, K.; Zhu, J.; Yu, X.; Muir, K.; Lophatananon, A.; McMillan, B.; Clarkson, P.; Tang, E. Y. H.; Guo, H.

2026-09-03 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.09.01.26360731 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
2.6%
Show abstract

Background Phenotypic age acceleration (PhenoAgeAccel), derived from PhenoAge, and MetaboHealth are composite exposures of biological ageing and metabolic health associated with dementia-related outcomes. Whether these associations are causal and reflect the exposures, constituent biomarkers, or both remains unclear. Methods This study included UK Biobank participants of White British genetic ancestry. MetaboHealth was derived from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolomics and PhenoAgeAccel from clinical biomarkers and chronological age. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were conducted for MetaboHealth (n=272,568) and PhenoAgeAccel (n=274,077). Independent genome-wide significant variants were used as genetic instruments in two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) with FinnGen all-cause dementia summary statistics. Inverse-variance weighting was the primary MR method. Causal network analysis estimated relationships among constituent biomarkers and dementia. Findings GWAS identified 126 and 141 independent genome-wide significant variants for MetaboHealth and PhenoAgeAccel, of which 109 and 141 were retained as genetic instruments. MR found no evidence of a causal effect of genetically predicted MetaboHealth (per unit: OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.49-1.42; p=0.51) or PhenoAgeAccel (per year: OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.95-1.02; p=0.44) on all-cause dementia, with consistent findings across sensitivity analyses and robust MR methods. Lower lymphocyte percentage and higher NMR-derived glucose had direct relationships with dementia in the joint constituent-biomarker network. Interpretation MR provided no evidence that either composite exposure causally influenced dementia. The network prioritised lymphocyte percentage and NMR-derived glucose, supporting examination of composite exposures alongside their constituent biomarkers. Funding NIHR, UKRI, MRC, UK Dementia Research Institute, Innovate UK, and European Union. Full funding details are provided in the acknowledgements.

5
Both ageing and frailty status impact vaccine-induced transcriptomic profiles and subsequent humoral immunity: results from the VITAL cohort

Joshi, M.; Carre, C.; Cevirgel, A.; Bijvank, E.; Chabaud-Riou, M.; Courtois, V.; Chautard, E.; Larocque, D.; Burny, W.; Beckers, L.; Buisman, A.-M.; Rots, N.; van der Heiden, M.; van Beek, J.; van Sleen, Y.; van Baarle, D.

2026-08-31 allergy and immunology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361408 medRxiv
Top 0.2%
1.7%
Show abstract

Vaccine responses vary across individuals due to differences in ageing and health status. Using transcriptomic profiling, we analyzed early gene expression profiles after influenza (QIV) followed by pneumococcal (PCV13) vaccination in 148 participants spanning young, middle-aged, and older adults. The two vaccines induced distinct immune signatures: QIV elicited innate and interferon immune activation, while PCV13 triggered inflammation-based responses. Older adults showed weaker but similar transcriptomic profiles compared to young adults. Among older adults, frailty, in addition to age, was strongly associated with reduced innate responses. In addition, we identified associations between early-stage transcriptomic profiles and later-stage antibody responses for QIV; however, no such associations were observed for PCV13. Importantly, observed group differences arose not from altered immune modules but from differences in the magnitude of gene expression, paving the way for immune-boosting interventions to enhance early gene expression in at-risk populations.

6
Multi-organ aging quantified from routine chest CT predicts chronic disease risk and mortality

Sato, J.; Salehjahromi, M.; Zafar, A.; Muneer, A.; Xu, X.; Zhu, E.; Vokes, N. I.; Cascone, T.; Le, X.; Altan, M.; Gardner, E. E.; Sheshadri, A.; Ostrin, E. J.; Salahudeen, A. A.; Li, T.; Merad, M.; Chaudhuri, A. A.; Gerber, D. E.; Kay, F. U.; Godoy, M. C. B.; Carter, B. W.; Shroff, G. S.; Byers, L. A.; Chung, C.; Jaffray, D.; Rice, D.; Liao, Z.; Chang, J. Y.; Vaporciyan, A. A.; Gibbons, D. L.; Wu, C. C.; Heymach, J. V.; Zhang, J.; Wu, J.

2026-08-31 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361434 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
1.1%
Show abstract

Biological aging occurs heterogeneously across individuals and organs. However, current measures of biological age incompletely capture organ-specific differences in health and disease risk. Because chest CT visualizes multiple thoracic organs, it offers an opportunity to quantify structural aging across organ systems. Here, we developed MOSAIC-Age, a framework characterizing eight organ-specific aging clocks on chest CT. The clocks were developed and validated using 9,971 CT scans from CT-RATE and MIDRC, and subsequently locked and applied to two independent prospective cohorts with 35,293 participants from the National Lung Screening Trial and Genetic Epidemiology of COPD study. CT-derived biological age gaps (BAGs) were examined in relation to lifestyle and socioeconomic factors, prevalent comorbidities, incident chronic diseases, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Higher BAGs, indicating organs that appeared older on CT than expected for their chronological age, were broadly associated with adverse health characteristics, chronic disease burden, and increased mortality risk. Multiple disease outcomes were associated with aging across several organs, whereas in multivariable analyses including all eight organ-specific BAGs, the remaining associations were more organ specific. A greater number of markedly older-appearing organs and a faster pace of aging were each associated with higher mortality. Together, these findings demonstrate that routine chest CT captures both shared and organ-specific patterns of biological aging and establish CT-derived organ aging as a quantitative imaging biomarker for assessing multi-organ health and long-term disease risk.

7
Entorhinal grid coding as a functional link between tau accumulation and episodic memory in human aging

Segen, V.; Belge Bernard, T.; Callau Navarro, G.; Bahrd, P.; Behrenbruch, N.; Schumann-Werner, B.; Schwarck, S.; Garcia-Garcia, B.; Barthel, H.; Sabri, O.; Kreissl, M. C.; Duzel, E.; Maass, A.; Wolbers, T.

2026-09-01 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.08.26.747192 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
1.1%
Show abstract

Episodic memory decline is a common feature of cognitively normal aging, but its extent varies markedly across individuals. Although entorhinal tau pathology is thought to be a key contributor to episodic memory impairment, the neural mechanisms linking early tau accumulation to memory differences remain unclear. Grid-cell computations in the entorhinal cortex, which provide scaffolds for organizing experiences into episodic memories, offer one candidate mechanism. Here, we combined virtual-reality functional MRI, multivariate analysis, tau PET, and delayed word-list recall in cognitively normal older adults to test whether tau-related alterations in entorhinal coding are associated with worse episodic memory. Weaker left entorhinal grid-cell-like signal was associated with poorer memory performance, and individuals with higher left entorhinal tau burden showed weaker grid-cell-like signal. This association was specific to the canonical six-fold signal and was not explained by entorhinal volume, mean diffusivity, or intracortical myelination. A cross-sectional Bayesian mediation analysis further demonstrated that bilateral medial temporal tau burden is related to memory indirectly through left entorhinal grid-cell-like signal. Together, these findings provide evidence that entorhinal grid codes may constitute a functional pathway linking tau accumulation to memory variability in normal aging.

8
A neuronal CRISPRi screen identifies PQLC2 as a lysosomal pH regulator controlling tau homeostasis

Welch, M.; Sampognaro, P. J.; Shu, S.; Chaplot, K.; Bothra, A.; Castruita, P. A.; Smith, A. W.; Antee, T.; Hodul, M.; Tian, R.; Gao, V.; Limas, J. C.; Burris, K. D.; Parker, J. L.; Yokoyama, J. S.; Miller, B. L.; Seeley, W. W.; Newstead, S.; Kampmann, M.; Kao, A. W.

2026-08-31 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.08.25.747102 medRxiv
Top 0.4%
0.9%
Show abstract

Lysosomes make key contributions to the maintenance of cellular proteostasis, and their functional compromise has been linked to aging and neurodegenerative disease. A defining characteristic of lysosomes is their relative acidity compared to other subcellular compartments, a quality that enables the efficient breakdown of macromolecules. Evidence suggests that neuronal lysosomal pH becomes dysregulated with aging and neurodegenerative disease, yet the mechanisms by which lysosomal pH is maintained remain incompletely understood. To better understand neuronal lysosomal pH regulation, we conducted a genome-wide CRISPRi-based screen in iPSC-derived iNeurons for modifiers of lysosomal pH. We validated several previously known regulators of lysosomal pH and identified novel pathways capable of modifying lysosomal pH, including protein UFMylation and mitochondrial homeostasis. We demonstrate that loss of the lysosomal cationic amino acid exporter, PQLC2, prevents lysosomal acidification in a manner independent of amino acid transport. A novel, tauopathy-associated mutation in PQLC2 impairs lysosomal acidification and drives tau accumulation. Together, this study reveals novel genes that modify lysosomal pH and highlights potential new targets for ameliorating age-related lysosome dysfunction.

9
Dysregulated splenic glucocorticoid sensitivity in aging and an α-synuclein transgenic mouse model of Parkinson's disease

Rombach, D.; Bopp, V.; Langgartner, D.; Grozdanov, V.; Kassubek, J.; Touma, C.; Reber, S. O.; Danzer, K. M.

2026-09-01 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.08.27.745197 medRxiv
Top 0.4%
0.8%
Show abstract

Introduction: Parkinson's disease (PD) and aging both disrupt hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis function and peripheral immune homeostasis. Whether aging or -synuclein (-syn) pathology alters glucocorticoid (GC) sensitivity of peripheral immune cells has not been investigated. Methods: Using an ex vivo GC sensitivity assay, we assessed the responsiveness of isolated and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-stimulated splenocytes to the anti-inflammatory effects of increasing doses of corticosterone (CORT) in a wild-type (WT) aging cohort and in a PD -syn transgenic mouse model and respective age-matched controls. Results: Compared with splenocytes from 6-month-old WT mice, splenocytes from 20-month-old WT mice were less sensitive to 0.1 and 0.5 M CORT. Isolated splenocytes from PD vs. control mice were less sensitive to 0.05, 0.1, and 0.5 M CORT specifically at 16 months of age, but not at 6 or 20 months of age. As peripheral immune phenotyping revealed neither differences in HPA axis-related parameters nor in splenic GC receptor expression between PD and age-matched control mice at 6, 16, and 20 months, splenic GC resistance in PD mice at 16 months of age seems to be mediated by downstream GR signaling dysfunction. Conclusion: Together, our results support the hypothesis that -syn pathology accelerates an aging-associated decline in the peripheral sensitivity to anti-inflammatory GCs and may thereby sustain systemic and neuroinflammatory processes in PD.

10
Smooth Curves, Similar Conclusions? Comparing Linear Regression and GAMLSS Neuropsychological Norms

Kirsebom, B.-E.; Myrvoll Lorentzen, I.; Espenes, J.; Vollo Eliassen, I.; Gonzalez-Ortiz, F.; Wallin, A.; Waterloo, K.; Eckerstrom, M.; Rolfseng Grontvedt, G.; Hessen, E.; Fladby, T.

2026-09-04 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361590 medRxiv
Top 0.5%
0.6%
Show abstract

Objective: Regression-based normative approaches are widely used in neuropsychology but often rely on score transformations to satisfy model assumptions. We compared previously published linear regression (LR)-based norms with norms derived using Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) for the brief cognitive battery used in the Norwegian Dementia Disease Initiation (DDI) cohort. Method: GAMLSS norms were developed using the same normative samples as the original LR norms for the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimers Disease (CERAD) word list test, Trail Making Test (TMT) A and B, FAS phonemic fluency, and Visual Object and Space Perception Battery (VOSP) Silhouettes. Expected low-score frequencies and empirical base rates were assessed in a normative subsample (n = 131). Clinical implications were evaluated in the DDI clinical cohort (n = 643) using Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) classification, two-year diagnostic stability and change, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers. Results: Compared with LR norms, GAMLSS yielded lower frequencies of low scores, primarily driven by CERAD delayed recall. Nevertheless, concordance between approaches was high (kappa = 0.91), with only 4.2% discordant classifications. Two-year diagnostic stability and change were broadly similar across approaches, and CSF biomarker profiles did not clearly favor either normative method. Conclusions: GAMLSS provided a more faithful representation of neuropsychological score distributions, particularly for bounded and non-normal outcomes. However, downstream clinical differences were modest in this setting, suggesting that well-calibrated LR norms may remain robust for clinical classification.

11
GLP-1/GIP Uptake, Indication, and Access Pathways Among US Adults in the Understanding America Study

Chaturvedi, R. R.; Gracner, T.; Perez-Arce, F.; Suen, S.-c.; Jin, J.; Orriens, B.; Pacula, R. L.; Sexton Ward, A.; Haile, R.; Kapteyn, A.

2026-09-02 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361368 medRxiv
Top 0.5%
0.6%
Show abstract

Importance: Evidence on GLP-1/GIP therapies is largely derived from trials enrolling selected populations or medical records that miss utilization outside healthcare channels. No nationally representative cohort has characterized real-world uptake, indications, and access. Objective: To characterize GLP-1/GIP prevalence, indication, clinical profile, and access. Design: Prospective cohort study with three GLP-1/GIP surveillance waves (March 2024, December 2024, October 2025). Setting: The Understanding America Study, an address-based, nationally representative panel of approximately 15,000 US adults aged 18+ years initiated in 2014. Participants: UAS participants responding to at least one surveillance wave (n=9150). Exposures: GLP-1/GIP use status (never vs any use, comprising current and former use), self-reported primary indication (diabetes, weight loss, or other), and access pathway (traditional vs non-traditional). Main Outcomes and Measures: Survey-weighted prevalence of GLP-1/GIP use, overall and by indication and access pathway; sociodemographic, cardiometabolic, treatment, and access characteristics; and smartwatch-derived resting heart rate, heart rate variability, maximum activity heart rate, step count, and sleep duration and variability. Results: Among n=9150 adults (1274 with any use; 60.9% female; median age 53 years), weighted prevalence increased 46%, from 8.2% (March 2024) to 12.0% (October 2025) representing 32 million. Weight-loss indications grew, reaching nearly half of use (4.1% to 5.6%); diabetes-indicated use was stable (5.3% to 5.4%). Users carried high cardiometabolic burden (obesity, 68.2%; diabetes, 53.6%) but diverged by indication: diabetes-indicated users were older (median, 59 vs 49 years), whereas weight-loss-indicated users were more often female (69.9% vs 51.3%) and healthier. One in three users (~9 million) had non-traditional access, especially in weight-loss-indicated users, of whom 33% had no conventional prescription; 41% used compounding, online, or foreign pharmacies; and, 43% lacked coverage. Non-traditional users were five times as likely to report an unlisted, likely compounded formulation (19.8% vs 4.1%). All p<0.05. Conclusions and Relevance: Real-world GLP-1/GIP use has grown rapidly and diversified substantially in indication, access, and population profile. One in 3 users obtained treatment through nontraditional channels largely invisible to claims data, raising long-term safety, efficacy, and coverage questions. GLIMMER provides a public, nationally representative longitudinal evidence base for future payer and provider decisions.

12
Comparative Value of Cognitive and Functional Assessments for Predicting 24-Month Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease: An ADNI Cohort Study

Choe, S.

2026-09-04 neurology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26360561 medRxiv
Top 0.5%
0.6%
Show abstract

Accurate prediction of progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important for prognosis, patient management, and clinical trial enrollment. Cognitive and functional assessments are routinely used in memory clinics, but their relative predictive value remains unclear. We sought to identify which assessments are most predictive of 24-month progression from MCI to AD. We analyzed 2,430 participants with baseline MCI from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) who were classified by 24-month progression to AD. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models were trained using repeated stratified 5-fold cross-validation with 10 repetitions. We compared demographic and genetic variables, global cognitive measures (MMSE, ADAS-Cog13, CDR-SB, MoCA), episodic memory, executive function, functional status, and Everyday Cognition (ECog) questionnaires. The baseline clinical model (age, sex, education, APOE {varepsilon}4 status) achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.692. Episodic memory showed the highest predictive performance (AUC = 0.915), followed by the Functional Activities Questionnaire (AUC = 0.913). Combining episodic memory, functional assessment, and executive function achieved the best performance (AUC = 0.943, sensitivity = 0.857, specificity = 0.889). Among individual memory measures, Logical Memory Delayed Recall achieved the highest standalone performance (AUC = 0.896), whereas RAVLT Learning provided minimal incremental value. Episodic memory demonstrated the strongest predictive performance among the individual assessment domains evaluated of 24-month progression from MCI to AD, with functional assessment providing substantial complementary value. Streamlined assessment batteries emphasizing episodic memory and functional status may improve efficient risk stratification in memory clinics and AD clinical trials.

13
Systematic Modality Ablation of Multimodal Machine Learning for Predicting 24-Month Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease

Choe, S.

2026-09-04 neurology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26360413 medRxiv
Top 0.5%
0.6%
Show abstract

Multimodal biomarkers have transformed Alzheimer's disease research, but the incremental contribution of individual modalities to predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) remains unclear. We systematically evaluated the contribution of demographic, cognitive, genetic, structural imaging, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and positron emission tomography (PET) biomarkers using a comprehensive ablation framework. We analyzed 2,430 participants with MCI from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative with known 24-month progression status. XGBoost models were trained using combinations of demographic variables, cognitive assessments, apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype, structural MRI, CSF biomarkers, and PET biomarkers. Performance was evaluated using repeated stratified 5X10 cross-validation, with out-of-fold AUC comparisons and Holm-Bonferroni correction. Sensitivity analyses assessed the effects of missing-data handling. The full multimodal model achieved the highest discrimination (AUC=0.934). Excluding cognitive assessments produced the largest reduction in performance (AUC=0.883, P<0.001). Removing APOE, CSF, or MRI produced only modest reductions (AUC=0.933, 0.931, and 0.932, respectively). PET produced a similarly small reduction in the primary analysis (AUC=0.932), although complete-case analysis indicated that imputation significantly inflated its performance (P=0.005), suggesting that its contribution may be underestimated or obscured by missingness. The baseline clinical model performed near chance (AUC=0.556). These findings establish an evidence-based hierarchy of biomarker contributions and provide a quantitative framework for prioritizing biomarker acquisition and designing cost-effective multimodal prediction models.

14
A Multi-Agent Large Language Model Reasoning Engine for Early Detection of Pediatric Growth Disorders

Rabbani, N.; Mettner, J.; Lee, K.; Soto-Rivera, C. L.; Windberger, A.; Santiago, K.; Hatoun, J.; Correa, E. T.; Vernacchio, L.; Kohane, I.

2026-08-31 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361655 medRxiv
Top 0.6%
0.6%
Show abstract

Routine childhood growth surveillance is a cornerstone of pediatric care. Growth pattern abnormalities are often early manifestations of chronic disease. Yet subtle abnormalities are frequently underrecognized, leading to diagnostic delays and avoidable morbidity. We introduce SPROUT (System for Pediatric Recognition Of Undiagnosed Trajectories), a generalized, multi-agent large language model (LLM) reasoning system designed to identify a broad spectrum of pediatric growth-related conditions from longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) earlier than standard clinical practice. Using a large pediatric primary care EHR dataset, we developed and validated SPROUT as a two-stage system. First, a highly specific LLM screener flags concerning longitudinal growth patterns. Second, an Orchestrator module coordinates a multidisciplinary panel of LLM agents to generate a ranked differential diagnosis. To correct systemic reasoning errors, a Trainer module injects meta-knowledge into the panel via a dedicated "Learner" agent. Diagnostic capability was evaluated using a walk-forward, visit-by-visit simulation leading up to the diagnosis date. The SPROUT screener model achieved 98% (83/85) specificity and 28% (9/32) sensitivity on a gold-standard dataset of pediatric primary care patients when evaluated one year before the index date, and 100% specificity and 47% sensitivity when evaluated using longitudinal data up to the day of diagnosis. When applied to 300 control patients (i.e., healthy or undiagnosed), the screener flagged 15. Subsequent expert panel review confirmed high suspicion for undiagnosed pathology in 33% (5/15) of these cases. In chronological walk-forward validation on disease cases, the diagnostic engine identified conditions well before standard-of-care documentation. One year prior to clinical diagnosis, the system achieved sensitivities of 81% for type 1 diabetes mellitus, 56% for pituitary disorders, and 44% for celiac disease. The SPROUT multi-agent system demonstrates the ability to detect a significant portion of latent growth-related pediatric conditions months to years before current clinical standards while minimizing false positives. These results support its potential as a decision support tool for reducing diagnostic delays in pediatric care.

15
A multimodal investigation of perceptual awareness in Alzheimer's disease

Huntley, J.; Barnett, B.; Bor, D.; Mancuso, M.; Mediano, P. A. M.; Naci, L.; Fleming, S.; Bertazzoli, G.; Clare, L.; Owen, A. M.; Rocchi, L.; Howard, R.

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26356661 medRxiv
Top 0.7%
0.5%
Show abstract

Despite extensive knowledge of the progressive sequence of cognitive and functional deficits in Alzheimer's Disease (AD), the impact of neurodegeneration on the conscious experience of patients remains largely unexplored. Understanding how the content of consciousness, particularly perceptual awareness, changes with the progression of AD is crucial to enable meaningful person-centred care. This is especially important in severe AD when impairments in language and other cognitive domains mean people are unable to report their experiences. We investigated whether electrophysiological (EEG) and fMRI signatures of perceptual awareness described in healthy older people are present in people with mild-moderate and severe AD using two "no-report" paradigms. Firstly, a visual masking paradigm examined visual awareness negativity (VAN) and late positive (LP) electrophysiological responses and activation in visual cortex and fronto-parietal regions that are characteristically associated with conscious perception of faces; and second, a complex audio-visual (movie) task examined activation in fronto-parietal networks previously associated with perceptual awareness. In healthy older controls we found cortical responses characteristic of awareness in both EEG and fMRI modalities, with VAN and LP markers and widespread occipital, fusiform face area and fronto-parietal activation. In people with mild-moderate AD, there were significant reductions in VAN and LP markers and reduced fronto-parietal activation. In participants with severe AD, who were behaviourally minimally responsive, there was only limited evidence of presence of frontoparietal markers of perceptual awareness, however this may reflect attentional and task insensitivity in people with advanced dementia. These results demonstrate that the brain mechanisms associated with perceptual awareness become increasingly impaired with progression of AD. Specifically, involvement of frontoparietal networks is reduced in AD, which may reflect reduced higher-level awareness. This suggests AD should be considered a disorder of consciousness and should motivate further investigation into the dimensions of awareness affected by the disorder with implications for treatment and management of people with dementia.

16
Evaluating Clinical Foundation Models for Early Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementia Prediction from Longitudinal EHRs

Farzana, S.; Arian, A.; Rundek, T.; Desvarieux, M.; Ahsan, H.

2026-09-03 health informatics 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361933 medRxiv
Top 0.7%
0.5%
Show abstract

Early identification of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) remains challenging despite its importance for timely intervention, management of modifiable risk factors, and care planning. We developed and evaluated ADRD onset prediction models using longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) from the All of Us Research Program at clinically meaningful lead times of 6, 12, 24, and 36 months before diagnosis, benchmarking interpretable count-based representations against four publicly available pretrained clinical foundation models (CLMBR-T, GPT-style, LLaMA-style, and Mamba) across multiple ADRD phenotype definitions. Count-based models consistently achieved the highest discrimination and calibration across all cohorts and prediction horizons. Predictive performance declined with increasing lead time for all approaches; however, the performance gap between count-based and pretrained representations progressively narrowed, with foundation models achieving comparable AUROC of 0.719 (compared to the AUROC of 0.738 of count-based model) at the 36-month horizon while providing higher sensitivity and F1 scores under a fixed operating threshold. External validation with zero-shot evaluation on UChicago EHRs exhibited limited generalizability for count-based and pretrained clinical foundation model based representations. These findings demonstrate that transparent count-based EHR representations remain the strongest overall approach for ADRD onset prediction, while pretrained clinical foundation models provide complementary advantages for long-term risk identification and establish a benchmark for evaluating transferable clinical representations in temporal ADRD risk prediction.

17
The timeline of brain aging in major depression: A prospective study from before first-onset to established illness

Konowski, M.; Kraus, A.; Goltermann, J.; Ernsting, J.; Mahjoory, K.; Fisch, L.; Spanagel, J.; Wellms, S.; Bedir, D.; Altegoer, L.; Borgers, T.; Teckentrup, S.; Papenbrock, S.; Hildebrand, A. S.; Ratnalingam, E.; Meisenzahl, E.; Herrmann, F.; Meinert, S.; Leehr, E. J.; Hubbert, J.; Krieger, J.; Meinert, H.; Meinert, H.; Slump, T.; Nenadic, I.; Jansen, A.; Javaheripour, N.; Thomas-Odenthal, F.; Jamalabadai, H.; Straube, B.; Hermesdorf, M.; Richter, M.; Helbok, R.; Jiang, X.; Opel, N.; Berger, K.; Kircher, T.; Dannlowski, U.; Hahn, T.; Winter, N. R.; Leenings, R.

2026-08-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361710 medRxiv
Top 0.8%
0.4%
Show abstract

Major depressive disorder (MDD) has been associated with accelerated structural brain aging, yet whether this reflects a pre-existing neurobiological vulnerability, a dynamic acute state effect, or an accumulating biological residual remains unresolved. Across two longitudinal cohorts (N=3220), including a unique sample of 78 initially healthy individuals who transitioned into their first depressive episode during the study course, we systematically tested all three hypotheses. Patients with diagnosed MDD showed elevated MRI-derived brain age relative to healthy controls (1.4 and 2.5 years across cohorts). For the vulnerability hypothesis, individuals scanned prior to their first episode showed no baseline elevation, despite already demonstrating subclinical elevations in self-reported symptom severity, indicating that advanced brain age does not precede illness onset. For the state hypothesis, we found no acceleration of brain aging following the first depressive episode, and longitudinal brain age trajectories were independent of acute clinical symptom severity. Finally, neither episode duration nor recurrence scaled with brain age. Accelerated brain aging in depression is therefore neither an antecedent vulnerability nor an acute state marker of the first episode, but rather a stable biological feature of a long term illness course.

18
Loss of RUBCN causes autophagy overdrive in a neurodevelopmental disorder with age-dependent neurodegeneration

Efthymiou, S.; Tabata, K.; Dafsari, H. S.; Schober, E.; Latza, C.; Isaoglu, M.; Abuelrub, A.; Rad, A.; Firoozfar, Z.; Turchetti, V.; Lin, R. Q.; Maroofian, R.; Wiethoff, S.; Afzal, E.; Zafar, F.; Rana, N.; McRae, A. M.; Kaiyrzhanov, R.; Guliyeva, U.; Gulieva, S.; Melikishvili, G.; Lespinasse, J.; Vitobello, A.; Denomme-Pichon, A.-S.; Wentzensen, I. M.; Mefford, H. C.; Briere, L. C.; A Walker, M.; A High, F.; Sweetser, D. A.; Kendall, M.; Franchi, M.; Brown, M.; Latner, D.; Joset, P.; Ivanovski, I.; Alfadhel, M.; Alluhaydan, I.; Frederiksen, A. S.; Arriens, V.; Hanker, B.; Mankad, K.; Guerin, J

2026-09-01 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.08.27.26360298 medRxiv
Top 1.0%
0.3%
Show abstract

Pathogenic variants in RUBCN, encoding the Run domain Beclin-1 interacting and cysteine-rich domain-containing protein (Rubicon) have been implicated in autosomal recessive spinocerebellar ataxia 15 (SCAR15). However, the molecular mechanisms underlying disease pathogenesis remain poorly understood. Here, we report 18 individuals from 15 unrelated families harbouring biallelic RUBCN variants, who present with an aggressive neurodevelopmental disorder variably characterized by seizures, developmental delay, intellectual disability and movement abnormalities that cause regression, progressive brain atrophy and neurodegenerative features. Through functional characterization, we demonstrate that a subset of disease-associated putative truncating variants disrupt autophagy regulation. In Caenorhabditis elegans models, loss-of-function RUBCN variants result in an increased autophagic flux and impaired neuronal function, recapitulating key features in humans. Correspondingly, cellular assays reveal that nonsense and frameshift RUBCN variants lead to defective autophagy inhibition, underscoring a crucial role for RUBCN as a key negative autophagy regulator. Molecular dynamics simulations rank the eleven missense variants by structural effect, with p.Arg813Trp alone altering the target protein at both the local and the regional level and lying within the RAB7A-binding module that the truncating alleles remove altogether. Our findings establish and expand the RUBCN-related disorders as a clinically and molecularly distinct subset of autophagy-related diseases. By delineating both the genetic landscape and cellular consequences of Rubicon dysfunction, this study enhances our understanding of autophagy-related neurodevelopmental disorders and provides a foundation for future therapeutic investigations.

19
Novel Dissymmetric Ionizable Lipid-Assembled Lipid Nanoparticles for Delivery of Ferroptosis-Related siRNA in Diabetic Treatment

Zhang, H.; Liu, Y.; He, F.; Xue, G.; Kang, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Ma, J.; Xiao, J.; Meng, Q.

2026-09-01 pharmacology and toxicology 10.64898/2026.08.26.747432 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.3%
Show abstract

Small interfering RNA (siRNA) enables precise post-transcriptional gene silencing for refractory diseases, yet its clinical translation remains limited by the lack of safe and efficient delivery vectors. Inspired by the dissymmetric alkyl chain architecture of natural membrane phospholipids, we designed and synthesized 34 novel ionizable lipids with dissymmetric hydrophobic tails and formulated them into lipid nanoparticles (LNPs). Through systematic physicochemical and biological assessments, we established clear structure-activity relationships and identified two lead LNPs (O14-LNP, H18a-LNP) with superior endosomal escape capacity, enhanced in vivo gene silencing potency, and favorable biosafety relative to the clinical benchmark MC3-LNP. In both streptozotocin-induced and spontaneous db/db type 2 diabetes (T2D) mouse models, lead LNPs delivering ferroptosis-related siRNAs effectively ameliorated glucose and lipid metabolic disorders, restored islet function, and alleviated hepatic steatosis. This study not only lays a theoretical foundation for the rational design of novel ionizable lipids, but also validates the therapeutic potential of siRNA therapy targeting ferroptosis, providing a versatile delivery platform and targeted therapeutic strategy for the treatment of T2D.

20
Characterization and pharmacological modulation of Alzheimers disease-associated human microglial states

Garcia-Diaz Barriga, G.; Rosebrock, D.; Renner, H.; Meyer, I.; Penalosa-Ruiz, G.; Firulyova, M. M.; Simon, M.; Yang, T.; Serratto, G. M.; Zoppetti, F.; Müller, W.; Illarionova, A.; Heise, K.; Kuhn, R.; von der Kammer, H.; Zimmer, B.; Gruber-Schoffnegger, D.

2026-09-01 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.08.26.747247 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.3%
Show abstract

Microglia are central mediators of Alzheimers disease (AD) pathogenesis, yet the mechanisms driving disease-associated microglial states and their therapeutic modulation remain poorly understood. Here, we integrated single-nucleus transcriptomic datasets across the AD spectrum and identified disease- and lipid-associated microglia (DLaM) as a major AD-enriched population linked to genetic risk, neuropathology and cognitive decline. To model this state experimentally, we screened AD-relevant perturbations in human induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC)-derived microglia and found that ferric ammonium citrate (FAC) reproducibly induced a DLaM-like state characterized by lipid accumulation, lysosomal dysfunction and impaired A{beta} phagocytosis. Using a transcriptomics-based state-reversion screen, we identified LY2090314 as a potent modulator that restored microglial function and induced a distinct lysosomal-metabolic state. These findings establish a framework for transcriptomic disease-state-guided therapeutic discovery in AD.